As the Iran war enters its fourth month, ridership on US public transit systems is rising as gasoline prices remain near historic highs.
Weekday commutes on Los Angeles County’s Metro system, for instance, jumped nearly 8% between January and May. “With gas prices in April averaging roughly $5.70 per gallon, the ability to travel across the county for just $1.75 makes rail an increasingly attractive and cost-effective alternative,” Maya Pogoda, senior director of communications for Los Angeles’s Metro system, said in an email.
Transportation agencies in Boston, Chicago and other cities also report growing ridership. Experts said it remains unclear to what extent gas prices are driving a switch to public transit versus other factors, such as return-to-office mandates and the ongoing recovery from the pandemic. But a May report from the New York Federal Reserve found that low- and moderate-income households have decreased their consumption of gasoline as pump prices spike, “potentially by carpooling or substituting to public transit where available.”
Studies have correlated a rise in gas prices with an increase in public transit use. Hiroyuki Iseki, an associate professor of urban studies and planning at the University of Maryland, said his research has shown that every 10% increase in gas prices over the course of a year results in up to a 1.2% rise in public transit demand.
“The cost pressure accumulates over time,” he said in an email. “Some segments of people will be forced to consider the trade-off between transportation costs, housing costs, convenience [and] activities to conduct that generate the need to travel.”
California’s gas costs are 41% higher than the US average — regular gas in the Golden State hovers above $6 a gallon with premium fuel edging toward $7 — and the state has seen notable increases in public transit use. In San Diego County, light rail ridership jumped nearly 18% between February and April compared to an 11% increase for the same period last year, according to the latest available data.
In Northern California, the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) train system saw a nearly 11% rise in weekday ridership between January and May. April ridership surged 21% on Caltrain, the commuter railroad that links Silicon Valley to San Francisco, compared to the previous year.
Chicago experienced an 11% increase between January and April with more interest from lower-income customers, according to a spokesperson for the city’s transit authority. Ridership on Boston’s rail line rose 13%.
With the Iran war at a stalemate, gas prices are expected to remain high throughout 2026. Even so, Iseki said drivers are loath to give up their wheels. After the oil shocks of 2008 and 2022, drivers largely returned to old habits when gas prices declined, according to researchers.
Experts said that though this is the second sudden run-up in gas prices in four years and comes amid persistent inflation and geopolitical upheaval, it may not result in a significant switch to public transit — though it could cut driving. That’s because people now have more alternatives, according to David King, an associate professor in the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning at Arizona State University.
“If we don’t drive, some trips might turn to transit, some trips might turn to work-from-home, some trips might turn to delivery, some are going to be biking or walking,” he said, noting people can also keep driving but eliminate their gas bill by switching to an electric vehicle.
Brian Taylor, a professor of urban planning and public policy at the University of California at Los Angeles, said drivers are more likely to leave their cars at home in areas with robust public transportation. He noted that an increase in ridership on those systems is easier to correlate with the effect of fuel prices.
Taylor said the impact of high gas prices will vary across the country and depends in part on how convenient the public transit system is in a particular city, particularly for suburban commuters. “If you’re driving to work but you have a very high quality transit system as an alternative and parking is difficult, some of those people will stick with it,” he said.
Woody writes for Bloomberg.