BERLIN — The collapse of a €100 billion program to build a European next-generation jet fighter has countries scrambling for options.
For nearly a decade, the Future Combat Air System was supposed to embody a new vision of European military power: a French, German and Spanish effort — with Belgium as an observer — to build not just a fighter jet, but an entire networked system of jets, drones, sensors and satellites capable of competing with some of the world’s most innovative military aircraft.
But after Berlin pulled the plug this week due to irreconcilable differences between France’s Dassault Aviation and Germany’s Airbus Defence and Space, countries are now trying to figure out what happens to their air power plans.
Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever denounced the failure of FCAS as “pure stupidity,” warning that European countries had chosen to be “irrelevant in a crucial part of air defense.”
There are three main options for a way forward:
One is for countries to try and go their own way and build their own jets — something German companies are already proposing, and which Dassault has long said France can do. But that could lead to duplication and strained national budgets may not be able to carry the load.
Otherwise, countries could turn to Lockheed Martin’s F-35, which is more advanced than existing European rivals. Germany is already looking to expand its fleet, and Belgium also flies the jets. But neither France nor Spain are buying them and it undermines the idea of Europe relying less on a Donald Trump-led United States.
Finally, countries could join up with existing projects — principally the Global Combat Air Programme led by Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom — or try to salvage parts of FCAS such as drones and the so-called combat cloud.
1. Go national
Germany is wasting no time trying to fill the hole left by FCAS.
In a letter to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius seen by POLITICO, Airbus and seven German aerospace and defense companies proposed a new alliance called Team Gen 6 aimed at developing a European sixth-generation combat aircraft.
The companies argue Germany must show “capacity to act” after FCAS and warn that the country’s combat aviation industry risks losing know-how, skilled workers and international competitiveness if work stalls.
The proposal would still need political backing from Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the defense ministry — and money.
“As for the new jet, we’ll see which paths we take,” Pistorius told reporters Tuesday. “We’ve already been in talks with various actors about this for months.”
One of the reasons for the collapse of FCAS was that France wanted a lighter plane to use on aircraft carriers, while Germany wanted a heavier air superiority fighter.
“Fundamentally, it sounds almost as if Germany wanted a successor to the Eurofighter and France wanted a successor to the Rafale — and those are fundamentally different aircraft. What Germany is looking for in a fighter is still unclear,” said Emil Archambault, a fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
That matters because a so-called sixth-generation fighter is not simply a faster or stealthier jet. The Team Gen 6 letter describes a system built around networking, drones, edge computing and integration between crewed and uncrewed platforms.
Paris enters that debate from a very different position.
Technically, France can build a warplane on its own. That was, in effect, Dassault’s core argument throughout the FCAS negotiations. France also needs a next-generation aircraft as part of its nuclear deterrent.
The harder question is whether Paris can afford to do so thanks to its strained public finances.
“For France, export markets will be absolutely crucial if it’s going to produce an aircraft on its own,” Archambault said.
2. Buy American
The second path is less visionary, but faster: buy more F-35s.
Confidential German budget documents previously seen by POLITICO earmark roughly €2.5 billion this year to expand the planned fleet from 35 to 50 aircraft.
The first 35 F-35s, ordered in 2022, are still being built in the United States and will eventually replace Germany’s aging Tornado fleet in NATO’s nuclear-sharing mission.
Additional aircraft would not solve the question of who builds Europe’s next fighter. But they could buy Berlin time.
The F-35 already exists, is nuclear-capable and is operated by a growing number of NATO allies. For military planners, that makes it an obvious bridge.
Every additional F-35 strengthens Germany’s military capabilities but also deepens dependence on Washington at a moment when European leaders insist the continent must become more strategically autonomous.
Then there’s the future sixth-generation U.S. F-47 under development by Boeing, which could go into service by the end of the decade. However, Trump has said the U.S. will sell less capable versions to its allies, undercutting their attractiveness.
3. Find partners or pick up the pieces
The third path is to join or preserve multinational efforts.
That could mean exploring a role in GCAP, though people familiar with discussions have warned that Italy or Japan may be wary of diluting the project by adding new members.
However, there are potential upsides, said Alessandro Marrone, head of the defense, security and space program at Italy’s Istituto Affari Internazionali.
He told Italy’s Startmag publication that Germany joining GCAP would “reconstitute the historical nucleus” of the cooperation that produced the Tornado and Eurofighter, while Berlin’s economic, industrial and military weight could give the program “a much more marked European dimension” and make it “the main point of reference for other European countries.”
Germany has also held talks about possible cooperation with Sweden, which makes its own fourth-generation Saab Gripen fighter and is mulling a more advanced jet.
Swedish Ambassador to Berlin Veronika Wand-Danielsson told The Pioneer that Sweden has companies with “extensive capabilities of their own in air defense, sensor technology and combat aircraft systems.”
Spain, however, faces a different dilemma.
Often overlooked in the Franco-German dispute, Madrid joined FCAS as the third partner and had hoped the project would secure a long-term role for its aerospace industry.
“Spain certainly is not developing an aircraft program on its own,” Archambault said, adding that Madrid could contribute some investment and production capacity but would remain “very much a minor partner in any joint aircraft program.”
There are also other sixth-generation projects like Turkey’s TAI Kaan, which first flew in 2024, but for now Ankara is developing that on its own after earlier efforts to team up with European companies fell through.