This is how the L.A. mayor’s race will end up. Trust me, I know

Faced with a big story, journalists like me love to offer our readers something we call “sweep.” It’s the insights about what might happen next and context that put the events in historical perspective that, we hope at least, you will share on social media, repeat with deep wisdom at weekend barbecues and compel you to hit that subscribe button.

But my sweep has been no match for the 2026 L.A. mayor’s race, which repeatedly surprised and confounded me.

It’s been a wild ride, and if the latest poll is to be believed, we approach election day with a tight race that could break for any of the three top contenders.

Consider this a Season 1 recap in advance of Tuesday’s finale (and remember, Season 2 begins Wednesday).

Episode 1: Who will take her on?

A year ago, Karen Bass seemed badly hurt and perhaps even mortally wounded. The unprecedented destruction of the January firestorm, combined with the growing criticism of City Hall’s response, had combined with perennial dissatisfaction about affordability, homelessness and related issues.

Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, a Pacific Palisades resident and outspoken critic of Bass, mulled a rematch. The powerful left wing of L.A. politics was also strategizing about a challenge. Spencer Pratt, the reality TV star who lost his home in the Palisades fire, threw his hat in the ring, but few took it that seriously.

By early 2026, something strange had happened.

Bass did not garner the band of opponents many expected. Some of it had to do with horrible tragedy, some because hopefuls could not see the math working out for them. In the days before the ballot was set, as L.A. Material reported, the bold-faced political names who refused to fight Bass themselves were begging others to do it for them.

Episode 2: The February surprise

Hours before the February filing deadline, it was looking like Bass, despite everything, might have a clear path to reelection.

But the night before the deadline, the smartphones of L.A. politicos and journalists exploded with rumors that Los Angeles City Councilwoman Niythia Raman was entering, giving Bass a formidable challenge from the left.

The last-minute Raman-Bass showdown was a political earthquake in part because the two had been allies and Raman’s name had appeared on a list of Bass endorsers for reelection. This did not sit well with some Democratic activists, with one telling my colleague David Zahniser that it smacked of betrayal and opportunism and is “kind of hard for me to stomach at the moment.”

But this was not Raman’s main narrative. The national media compared Raman to the hottest politician of the moment, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and her camp was not exactly pushing back on that. Raman had progressive credentials and seemed to many to represent a new generation of leadership.

Episode 3: The Spencer Pratt Show

It would take a while for it to be clear that this was not going to be strictly a Bass vs. Raman contest. Few saw the rise of Pratt at first. After all, he was a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. He was the villain on “The Hills.” He’d never run for office and at first seemed like a one-issue candidate: The fires.

But Pratt quickly tapped a broader message familiar to viewers of Fox News: That L.A. was in rapid decline thanks to the bankrupt, woke policies of Bass, Raman and the rest of the L.A. establishment. Homeless people overrunning the city. Crime out of control. Liberal governing run amok.

He offered this critique, and some took notice. But his message really got supercharged by clever, slightly crude AI-generated videos showing Pratt as the superhero saving L.A. from the villainous Democrats. By April, these videos had taken over social media feeds, along with testimonials from some decidedly non-MAGA figures who made the case Pratt might be worth the risk.

Despite the hype, it was hard to know if Pratt was gaining actual votes or just millions of likes. Then, in May, an Emerson College poll found Pratt in second place, behind Bass but ahead of Raman. Suddenly, no one was writing off “The Hills” guy, even if he still seemed like a long shot.

The Pratt boom coincided with a shift in the conventional wisdom around Raman and Bass. Raman, it was said, had two weak debate performances and was on the ropes. Key progressives, especially on the City Council, were backing Bass instead of her. Some pundits said she was struggling to run a citywide campaign that appealed to voters outside her lefty Silver Lake base.

The narrative around Bass was changing too. Sure, she was unpopular. But she was running a disciplined campaign and seemed to have two key groups behind her: Labor and Latinos. You could not watch a local TV newscast without seeing that Bass ad showing her standing up to ICE during the Trump immigration sweeps.

Episode 4: Closing days.

The race went three weeks without a new poll. By now, Pratt had become a national story, with profiles in places like Vanity Fair and the Wall Street Journal. Fox News was covering the L.A. mayor’s race like it was a presidential election, with Pratt offered up as L.A.’s salvation.

Then on Thursday, a new U.C. Berkeley/L.A. Times poll scrambled expectations again. It found an incredibly close race: Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22% among likely voters.

Suddenly, Bass looked vulnerable. No one was writing off Raman anymore. And some whispered about Pratt’s ceiling in deep-blue L.A.

But there was also the post-poll spin: The polls undercount Pratt’s support because there are a lot of people who don’t want to admit they support him. L.A.’s hatred of Trump will help Bass and Raman on Election Day despite the voter dissatisfaction with City Hall.

One thing I can predict: When all the votes are counted, I will offer some sweep that subtly suggests I knew it all along.

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